Macro Strategy Themes Trades: Live
We present a comprehensive list of all open and recently closed tactical trades across FX, equities, fixed income, and cross asset. Each trade is backed by in-depth analysis from our Macro Strategy Themes publications, with direct links available exclusively to clients.
| Date | Publication/Trade Details | Description/Rationale | *Return | Unit | Asset | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 25 | Sell March 2027 SOFR futures | We disagree with the destination for the fed funds rate, rather than the pace of cuts priced into markets, and see value in selling March 2027 SOFR futures. | 6.18 | bps | FI | OPEN |
| 10 Sep 25 | Long AUD/USD | We expect the Aussie dollar will continue to appreciate against the US dollar, converging towards 0.68 over the next few months. This will be driven by fundamentals moving in the Aussie dollar's favour. | -1.38 | % | FX | OPEN |
| 01 Sep 25 | Overweight Eurozone banks | We think Eurozone banks will continue to outperform the region's broader equity market. The sector was the standout performer in the Q2 earnings season, and we think its relatively strong EPS momentum will persist. | -1.70 | % | EQ | OPEN |
| 28 Jul 25 | 2s5s USD inflation swap flattening | We expect the inflation swap curve to flatten, with a focus on the 2s5s segment, which is currently trading at -0.3%. | -6.36 | bps | FI | OPEN |
| 08 Jul 25 | Short GBP/USD | We expect GBP/USD to consolidate at current levels over the summer, before converging to the 1.25-1.30 range in Q4. GBP/USD was driven by dollar weakness, rather than underlying pound strength in H1. Our fundamental valuation anchors now point to an overvalued pound. | 2.16 | % | FX | OPEN |
| 20 Jun 25 | UST 10s30s to steepen | We think that fiscal impulse will result in higher term premia via higher nominal growth, fiscal sustainability concerns, and threats to US institutions. That should result in a steeper 10s30s slope. | 7.00 | bps | FI | OPEN |
| 12 Jun 25 | Long 10y Bunds over BTPs | We think the convergence of the BTP/Bund spread is nearing an end and estimate the spread will be higher than current levels by year end. Our spread model suggests a fair value in the 120-140 bps range. | -8.90 | bps | FI | OPEN |
| 04 Jun 25 | Underweight US industrials | We are underweight industrials as we think the sector is vulnerable to disappointment as tariffs squeeze margins and policy uncertainty weighs on investment. | 3.50 | % | EQ | OPEN |
| 19 May 25 | US vs Germany USD unhedged | We remain underweight Germany, as we think the market's strong year-to-date outperformance is at odds with its weak EPS momentum. We expect it to give back some of its relative gains in the near term. | 8.28 | % | EQ | OPEN |
| 19 May 25 | Overweight US communications | We remain overweight communication services and healthcare due to their quality characteristics and relatively attractive valuations. | 3.40 | % | EQ | OPEN |
Data Sources & Methodology
Within our allocation we use indices from the following sources to calculate performance:
- Fixed Income: BAML ICE Indices via Macrobond
- Foreign Exchange (FX): Forward returns via Macrobond
- Equities: MSCI indices via Macrobond
- Derivatives (Futures, Forwards, Options): Bloomberg
Macro Strategy Themes Trades: Recently Closed
| Closed On | Publication/Trade Details | Description | *Return | Unit | Asset | Opened On |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 25 | Long NZD/USD | We expect the New Zealand dollar to appreciate modestly against the US dollar through year-end and into H1 2026. Our fair value models suggest the Kiwi dollar remains undervalued relative to the US dollar, by around 5%. | -0.86 | % | FX | 29 Sep 25 |
| 30 Sep 25 | Quality stocks to outperform | We maintain a tilt towards quality at the sector level. This month, we raise communication services to overweight following a strong Q1 earnings season which helped the sector buck the broader EPS downgrade trend. | -3.73 | % | EQ | 19 May 25 |
| 22 Sep 25 | Long 2-year gilts | Even if rate cuts take longer to materialise, we think they will be deeper than markets are pricing. We don't think the long end will benefit as much from lower cuts, especially as lower growth exacerbates existing fiscal sustainability concerns in fiscally constrained countries. | -8.00 | bps | FI | 09 May 25 |
| 08 Sep 25 | 2s30s gilts to steepen | We believe that rising economic slack is at odds with market expectations of sustained monetary tightness. While we anticipate the BoE will cut rates more aggressively than markets currently imply, the long end is unlikely to benefit proportionately given ongoing concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook. | 2.00 | bps | FI | 28 Jul 25 |
| 19 Aug 25 | Long USD/JPY | We think the yen has peaked and USD/JPY will move back towards 150 this year as safety flows gradually unwind. | 3.77 | % | FX | 30 Apr 25 |
| 29 Jul 25 | BTP widener | The need for higher defence spending could renew debt sustainability issues in fiscally weaker European countries, driving peripheral spreads wider, especially in France and Italy. | -15.15 | bps | FI | 06 Mar 25 |
| 29 Jul 25 | Euro gains to peter out | On the dollar, we expect a rebound and the gains in the euro to peter out. We think the Fed will continue to place greater emphasis on risks to inflation relative to growth, and we maintain our expectation of only one rate cut – in December – versus market pricing of three cuts. | -6.72 | % | FX | 13 Mar 25 |
| 02 Jul 25 | UK gilt yields to remain structurally higher | We expect UK term premia to remain structurally higher going forward as the Budget announcement failed to significantly ease the market's concern regarding the UK's long-term fiscal sustainability path. | 6.00 | bps | FI | 05 Nov 24 |
| 25 Jun 25 | Overweight Japanese equities | Japan's EPS revisions continue to outpace other major markets and it sits at the top of our allocation framework. | 6.24 | % | EQ | 17 Sep 24 |
| 25 Jun 25 | Long USD/HKD forwards | A long USD/HKD forward at 12m would lock in a 7.67 rate and would result in a minimum profit of 1.0% and maximum of 2.3% (assuming the spot rate would return to either the lower end of the band at 7.75 or the higher end of the band at 7.85 at the end of 12 months) on an unleveraged basis. | 0.80 | % | FX | 07 May 25 |
| 17 Jun 25 | Spain equities to outperform Eurozone | We are underweight eurozone equities as both the domestic economy and corporate sector lack momentum. However, we see some bright spots, with Spain continuing to outperform and sectors such as travel & leisure, pharma, and defence well placed. | 16.86 | % | EQ | 06 Jan 25 |
| 22 May 25 | EURCHF to unwind | We think Swiss Franc weakness over the next few weeks will be driven by a partial unwinding of safe haven flows and the threat of US tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports. | 4.17 | % | FX | 14 Apr 25 |